Analysis of the Potential of Meeting the EU’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Targets in 2030 and 2050

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is anticipated to have a significant impact on decarbonizing the industry owing its ability be seamlessly incorporated into current infrastructure. This paper analyzes potential of meeting proposed SAF targets set by ReFuelEU initiative. The approved production pathways according ASTM D7566 using renewable bio-based feedstocks were defined and analyzed. Moreover, detailed matrix for comparison was used provide an overview state those pathways. analysis has shown that hydroprocessed esters fatty acids (HEFA), alcohol jet (ATJ), Fischer–Tropsch (FT-SPK) are most promising in foreseeable future due their high technology readiness levels. HEFA mature affordable pathway; therefore, it expected form backbone stimulate market short term despite low sustainability credentials, limited feedstock, geopolitical implications. On other hand, FT-SPK can utilize various lowest greenhouse gas emissions with around 7.7 12.2 gCO2e/MJ compared conventional baseline 89 gCO2e/MJ. Overall, EU enough sustainable meet short-term technologies. In long term, reliability availability biomass diminish, leading projected deficit 1.35 Mt from feedstocks. Consequently, further policy framework needed divert more sectors toward production. investment R&D necessary improve process efficiencies push new technologies such as power-to-liquid commercial operation.